Make that 15,000

The book and the web site I mentioned in my latest blog entry promises you that you will catch more trout.

In fact the author states that he has caught 15,000 trout during the last 20 years to prove that his method works. I love numbers like that! 15,000. Sounds like a lot, eh?

Well it is. Let's take that number apart a bit.

The first simple calculation: how many fish do you have to catch a day to catch 15,000 fish in 20 years. Not that many actually.

15,000/20/365 is 2.05 or in essence two fish a day.
Most people can catch two fish a day in a stream with a nymph.

But... can most people go fishing every single day for 20 years? No! Actually I would seriously doubt that anybody has ever gone nymph fishing every day for 20 years. That would amount to some 7,300 trips. Think about the amount of rods, lines, waders and felt soles that would cost you, not to mention nymphs lost to the bottom and gas burned in the car.

There are many reasons why no one will have fished every day for 20 years. I could also mention winter and ice, blown out streams, births and marriages and all other kinds of sane and insane reasons.

So, let's say he can only go fishing every second day.
That would mean catching four fish every second day for 20 years. Some track record if you ask me.

What if he were more human and had a job? Maybe he can only fish in the weekend, which is the case for quite a lot of people. That would severely cut his fishing time and up the demands on the efficiency. He would have to catch seven fish every Saturday and Sunday all year round and have a few eight-fish days too.
Not impossible, but not very likely either. Having 7-8 fish in hand on every trip for 52 weekends on end in 20 years. That must mean having a pact with Lady Luck (or the devil, maybe...?).

If he were like the average Joe he would get to go fishing maybe just every other week, and then just for a day. And he would take a three month haitus during the winter because of ice, off-season closings and bad weather.

That would severely diminish his fishing time, and even being moderately optimistic would only give him about 40 fishing days in a year.
How many here go fishing 40 days a year?
And have done so for 20 consecutive years?

If you go 40 times a year for 20 years you will have to catch just 19 fish a trip in order to reach the 15,000 fish mark.

Now 19 fish on a trip. That's some trip in my perspective!
I have just been out for the 14th time in a row without catching anything! Not nymphing, of course, but trust me: I have been skunked on stream trips too.

I'm really looking forward to learning those tricks.